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Houston Astros vs. Athletics

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $206.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $368.8KEvent: Houston Astros vs. Athletics
100.0¢
Houston Astros
0.1¢
Athletics
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:43 trades$149.1K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 48s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Athletics · $2.7K net·3 wallets·$2.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAthletics$25.0K@ 36¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$860
6h
+$4.4K
tracked
$149.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: Athletics · $2.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -37.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 35 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 19:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Athletics, scheduled for September 27 at 3:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Athletics@ 38.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -31.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Athletics3h ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Houston Astros@ 64.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +27.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Houston Astros@ 64.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +27.0pp
Latest book event: Athletics DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $83 → $172 · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Houston Astros; negative values favor Athletics. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHouston Astros · $860
6hHouston Astros · $4.4K
24hHouston Astros · $14.8K

Houston Astros price VWAP

Volume-weighted Houston Astros price. Athletics fills are converted to the complementary Houston Astros probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h66.3¢▲ above by 33.6pp
VWAP 7d66.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Houston Astros price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$6.5K
90¢
$4.8K
85¢
$0
80¢
$572
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$137.1K
55¢
$134
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAthletics$14.0K@ 36.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAthletics$25.0K@ 36.4¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYHouston Astros$19.1K@ 64.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYHouston Astros$19.2K@ 64.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYHouston Astros$19.2K@ 64.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYAthletics$17.7K@ 36.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoiHouston Astros$64.9K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·6 fills
BrotherObamaAthletics$39.0K
BUY VWAP 36.3¢·2 fills
Sassy-BucketAthletics$17.7K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.