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TCU vs. UCF

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 19 minutesLiquidity: $408.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $156.6KEvent: TCU vs. UCF
61.5¢
TCU
38.5¢
UCF
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly68Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$68.2K tracked22% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 48 min agoofficial metadata 45s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTCU$42.6K@ 60¢·primm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

TCU pressure: $1.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.4K
6h
+$48.7K
tracked
$68.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: TCU · $1.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 48 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from TCU or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "TCU" if TCU win the game.

•This market will resolve to "UCF" if UCF win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between TCU and UCF, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "TCU" if TCU win the game. This market will resolve to "UCF" if UCF win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
primm2 linked markets · $50.7K gross
VeryLucky8882 linked markets · $2.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY TCU@ 61.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor TCU; negative values favor UCF. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTCU · $1.4K
6hTCU · $48.7K
24hTCU · $48.7K

TCU price VWAP

Volume-weighted TCU price. UCF fills are converted to the complementary TCU probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.5¢
VWAP 24h60.1¢▲ above by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d60.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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TCU price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$68.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTCU$12.5K@ 60.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTCU$42.6K@ 60.0¢
primm0xd38b…5029
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

primmTCU$42.6K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
Sassy-BucketTCU$12.5K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.