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Spread: Florida (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $4.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $299.6KEvent: Ole Miss vs. Florida
69.5¢
Florida
30.5¢
Ole Miss
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution41Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:39 trades$130.4K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 16s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Florida · $4.5K net·2 wallets·$15.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFlorida$30.0K@ 50¢·texaskid

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Ole Miss pressure: $27.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$27.3K
6h
+$30.8K
tracked
$130.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Florida · $4.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 76% · priority 54

Since latest large flow: +20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 5.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 20.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Ole Miss or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Florida" if Florida win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ole Miss".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Florida" if Florida win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ole Miss". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
alwaysfade2 linked markets · $111.2K gross
texaskid2 linked markets · $108.0K gross
maz262 linked markets · $93.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Florida@ 52.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Florida@ 51.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Ole Miss DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $50 → $137 · 58s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Florida; negative values favor Ole Miss. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOle Miss · $27.3K
6hFlorida · $30.8K
24hFlorida · $29.7K

Florida price VWAP

Volume-weighted Florida price. Ole Miss fills are converted to the complementary Florida probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current69.5¢
VWAP 24h51.3¢▲ above by 18.2pp
VWAP 7d51.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Florida price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$0
60¢
$60
55¢
$0
50¢
$117.0K
45¢
$20.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOle Miss$20.9K@ 47.0¢
KaneAnalytics0x7e3a…3246
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYOle Miss$12.8K@ 48.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFlorida$20.4K@ 51.0¢
alwaysfade0xe5b7…5ee3
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFlorida$30.0K@ 50.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

texaskidFlorida$30.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
alwaysfadeFlorida$25.1K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills
KaneAnalyticsOle Miss$20.9K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rOle Miss$19.1K
BUY VWAP 48.6¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.