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Spread: Miami (OH) (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $3.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $88.9KEvent: UConn vs. Miami (OH)
12.0¢
Miami (OH)
88.0¢
UConn
14.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution5Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$44.9K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 62 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUConn$41.3K@ 54¢·texaskid

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.4K
tracked
$44.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Miami (OH) · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
14.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 62 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 14.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Miami (OH)" if Miami (OH) win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "UConn".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami (OH)" if Miami (OH) win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "UConn". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
texaskid2 linked markets · $61.2K gross
primm2 linked markets · $12.7K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $6.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Miami (OH) DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $20 → $16 · 71s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Miami (OH); negative values favor UConn. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMiami (OH) · $0
6hUConn · $1.4K
24hUConn · $42.7K

Miami (OH) price VWAP

Volume-weighted Miami (OH) price. UConn fills are converted to the complementary Miami (OH) probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current12.0¢
VWAP 24h45.9¢▼ below by 33.9pp
VWAP 7d45.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Miami (OH) price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$43.8K
40¢
$1.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUConn$41.3K@ 54.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

texaskidUConn$41.3K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.