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Spread: LSU (-7.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $42.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $120.2KEvent: Texas A&M vs. LSU
53.5¢
LSU
46.5¢
Texas A&M
15.0¢
Spread
anomaly5Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets47Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$51.7K tracked15% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Texas A&M · $5.6K net·2 wallets·$16.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTexas A&M$10.1K@ 48¢·wr0ngw4yb3tt0r

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$30
6h
−$39.0K
tracked
$51.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: Texas A&M · $5.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
15.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 15.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LSU" if LSU win the game by 8 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Texas A&M".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "LSU" if LSU win the game by 8 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Texas A&M". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r4 linked markets · $118.0K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $55.8K gross
maz263 linked markets · $47.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Texas A&M1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Texas A&M@ 49.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -16.0pp
Latest book event: Texas A&M DOWN 9.5pp · near-book depth $122 → $2.2K · 26s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor LSU; negative values favor Texas A&M. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLSU · $30
6hTexas A&M · $39.0K
24hTexas A&M · $39.0K

LSU price VWAP

Volume-weighted LSU price. Texas A&M fills are converted to the complementary LSU probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h52.0¢▲ above by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d51.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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LSU price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$30
50¢
← now
$62.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTexas A&M$10.1K@ 48.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTexas A&M$10.1K@ 48.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

wr0ngw4yb3tt0rTexas A&M$35.5K
BUY VWAP 48.1¢·6 fills
HomeRunHazardTexas A&M$10.9K
BUY VWAP 48.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.