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Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $1.0MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
0.1¢
LGD Gaming
100.0¢
Aurora
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 0%💡 29 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:336 trades$396.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage unavailable
official metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:LGD Gaming · $11.0K net·29 wallets·$35.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora$13.1K@ 54¢·Sunshine.Smile

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$396.0K

29 verified profitable wallets: LGD Gaming · $11.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 0% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 336 tracked trades / 0 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape freshness is unavailable.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-22 19:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against Aurora.

•This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against LGD Gaming.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between LGD Gaming and Aurora in the PGL Wallachia Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against Aurora. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against LGD Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 22, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $55.0K gross
Sunshine.Smile2 linked markets · $16.1K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $13.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Aurora DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $295 → $137 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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LGD Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$7.7K
65¢
$10.2K
60¢
$21.6K
55¢
$45.2K
50¢
$119.0K
45¢
$51.9K
40¢
$13.1K
35¢
$9.6K
30¢
$6.9K
25¢
$5.4K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$6.5K
0¢
← now
$98.9K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAurora$10.7K@ 99.9¢
Skritopoolniy0xd06c…cdaf
🐋—8 minutes ago
BUYLGD Gaming$10.4K@ 51.0¢
Netrol0x23c8…f293
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora$10.0K@ 50.8¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLGD Gaming$12.0K@ 50.0¢
Netrol0x23c8…f293
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora$13.1K@ 53.6¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

NetrolLGD Gaming$30.9K
BUY VWAP 50.7¢·4 fills
0xe16d…5e30Aurora$24.0K
BUY VWAP 51.4¢·8 fills
Sunshine.SmileAurora$13.1K
BUY VWAP 53.6¢·1 fill
PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRLGD Gaming$11.6K
BUY VWAP 47.5¢·5 fills
hff.Aurora$11.2K
BUY VWAP 49.6¢·5 fills
hff.LGD Gaming$10.5K
BUY VWAP 57.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.