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Spread: Arizona (-10.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $15.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $121.2KEvent: Arizona vs. Washington State
53.0¢
Arizona
75.0¢
Washington State
7.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution12Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$55.4K tracked22% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 77 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArizona$21.5K@ 52¢·texaskid

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$16.6K
tracked
$55.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: Washington State · $19.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
7.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 77 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 7.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Arizona" if Arizona win the game by 11 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Washington State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona" if Arizona win the game by 11 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Washington State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Washington State@ 48.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arizona; negative values favor Washington State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArizona · $0
6hArizona · $16.6K
24hWashington State · $8.3K

Arizona price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arizona price. Washington State fills are converted to the complementary Arizona probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.0¢
VWAP 24h52.0¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d51.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arizona price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$57.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArizona$21.5K@ 52.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYWashington State$19.7K@ 48.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

texaskidArizona$21.5K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
maz26Washington State$19.7K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.