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Missouri vs. Mississippi State

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $112.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $444.0KEvent: Missouri vs. Mississippi State
13.5¢
Missouri
86.5¢
Mississippi State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets45Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:107 trades$185.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mississippi State · $46.2K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$101.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMississippi State$33.9K@ 62¢·ic4cream

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Missouri pressure: $7.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.3K
6h
−$29.7K
tracked
$185.4K

5 verified profitable wallets: Mississippi State · $46.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 54

Since latest large flow: +25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 25.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Missouri or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 23:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Missouri" if Missouri win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Mississippi State" if Mississippi State win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Missouri and Mississippi State, scheduled for September 26 at 7:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Missouri" if Missouri win the game. This market will resolve to "Mississippi State" if Mississippi State win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $23.6K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $16.9K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $12.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Mississippi State@ 62.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Missouri@ 35.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Mississippi State UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $48.4K → $1.6K · 60s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Missouri; negative values favor Mississippi State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMissouri · $7.3K
6hMississippi State · $29.7K
24hMississippi State · $5.8K

Missouri price VWAP

Volume-weighted Missouri price. Mississippi State fills are converted to the complementary Missouri probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current13.5¢
VWAP 24h37.1¢▼ below by 23.6pp
VWAP 7d37.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Missouri price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$91
40¢
$5.5K
35¢
$153.2K
30¢
$26.2K
25¢
$1.5K
20¢
$220
15¢
$9
10¢
← now
$2
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMissouri$20.0K@ 39.4¢0x8785…8cc1🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMississippi State$33.9K@ 62.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMississippi State$33.9K@ 62.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMissouri$11.1K@ 35.0¢
alwaysfade0xe5b7…5ee3
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ic4creamMississippi State$67.7K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·2 fills
0x8785…8cc1Missouri$20.0K
BUY VWAP 39.4¢·1 fill
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rMissouri$18.0K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·4 fills
alwaysfadeMissouri$11.1K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·1 fill
mooseborzoiMississippi State$10.6K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·30 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.