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Spread: UMass (-4.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $7.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $82.9KEvent: UMass vs. Sacramento State
61.0¢
UMass
39.0¢
Sacramento State
20.0¢
Spread
anomaly11Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution16Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$28.5K trackedsource coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 47 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:UMass · $25.7K net·3 wallets·$25.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUMass$6.7K@ 52¢·HomeRunHazard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$109
6h
+$24.1K
tracked
$28.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: UMass · $25.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
20.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 47 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 20.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "UMass" if UMass win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sacramento State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "UMass" if UMass win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sacramento State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $48.5K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r3 linked markets · $18.5K gross
ic4cream2 linked markets · $4.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor UMass; negative values favor Sacramento State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUMass · $109
6hUMass · $24.1K
24hUMass · $24.1K

UMass price VWAP

Volume-weighted UMass price. Sacramento State fills are converted to the complementary UMass probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.0¢
VWAP 24h52.0¢▲ above by 9.0pp
VWAP 7d51.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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UMass price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$28.5K
45¢
$4.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HomeRunHazardUMass$21.5K
BUY VWAP 51.7¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.