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Alabama vs. Mississippi State

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 12 minutesLiquidity: $160.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Alabama vs. Mississippi State
86.0¢
Alabama
14.0¢
Mississippi State
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority75Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:83 trades$806.4K tracked19% 🐋source coverage 59%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alabama · $248.1K net·12 wallets(4🐋)·$256.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlabama$255.9K@ 66¢·Sassy-Bucket

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Alabama SETUP
What the tape says

Alabama pressure: $210.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$210.1K
6h
+$611.4K
tracked
$806.4K

12 verified profitable wallets: Alabama · $248.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 90% · priority 75

Since latest accumulation: +6.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alabama or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Alabama" if Alabama win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Mississippi State" if Mississippi State win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Alabama and Mississippi State, scheduled for October 3 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Alabama" if Alabama win the game. This market will resolve to "Mississippi State" if Mississippi State win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoii3 linked markets · $191.4K gross
ethanaz2 linked markets · $94.6K gross
Painfulvoid2 linked markets · $38.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alabama15m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Alabama15m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Alabama@ 81.0¢35m ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Alabama@ 81.0¢35m ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp
Latest book event: Alabama DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $14.6K → $2.5K · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alabama; negative values favor Mississippi State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlabama · $210.1K
6hAlabama · $611.4K
24hAlabama · $611.4K

Alabama price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alabama price. Mississippi State fills are converted to the complementary Alabama probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current86.0¢
VWAP 24h70.7¢▲ above by 15.3pp
VWAP 7d70.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Alabama price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$82.1K
80¢
$69.4K
75¢
$60.9K
70¢
$39.8K
65¢
$555.0K
60¢
$4.1K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlabama$43.2K@ 90.0¢
jaytee1580xa2c9…2c23
🐋—3 minutes ago
BUYAlabama$11.0K@ 84.0¢
mooseborzoii0x1f3a…895d
🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYAlabama$20.3K@ 81.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYAlabama$21.6K@ 80.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—39 minutes ago
BUYAlabama$17.4K@ 87.0¢
177-letsgo0x7a75…d288
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlabama$17.5K@ 78.0¢
iDARKenjoyer0xf68a…5b1b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlabama$10.1K@ 78.0¢0x50f9…c327🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlabama$21.3K@ 70.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlabama$13.2K@ 66.0¢
JokerTheClown0x819d…07f1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlabama$16.8K@ 66.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlabama$13.2K@ 66.0¢
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlabama$33.7K@ 66.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlabama$72.3K@ 66.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlabama$42.1K@ 66.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlabama$255.9K@ 66.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMississippi State$57.9K@ 34.0¢
Soarin220x84db…aeeb
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketAlabama$255.9K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Alabama$106.0K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·2 fills
Soarin22Mississippi State$57.9K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·1 fill
ethanazAlabama$50.5K
BUY VWAP 75.3¢·3 fills
jaytee158Alabama$43.2K
BUY VWAP 90.0¢·1 fill
Kch-TempAlabama$42.1K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
fkcvffcjtAlabama$37.1K
BUY VWAP 73.4¢·2 fills
iDARKenjoyerAlabama$36.3K
BUY VWAP 77.7¢·4 fills
177-letsgoAlabama$27.4K
BUY VWAP 83.5¢·2 fills
mooseborzoiiAlabama$15.1K
BUY VWAP 77.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.