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Spread: Alabama (-4.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 17 minutesLiquidity: $36.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $109.2KEvent: Alabama vs. Mississippi State
73.0¢
Alabama
27.0¢
Mississippi State
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution18Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
24h sample:13 trades$51.3K tracked15% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 54 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMississippi State$17.8K@ 48¢·Painfulvoid

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$2
6h
−$24.5K
tracked
$51.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -19.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 54 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Alabama" if Alabama win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mississippi State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Alabama" if Alabama win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mississippi State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoii3 linked markets · $191.4K gross
ethanaz2 linked markets · $94.6K gross
Painfulvoid2 linked markets · $38.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Mississippi State@ 48.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Mississippi State@ 48.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Mississippi State DOWN 16.0pp · near-book depth $0 → $102 · 18s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alabama; negative values favor Mississippi State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlabama · $2
6hMississippi State · $24.5K
24hMississippi State · $24.5K

Alabama price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alabama price. Mississippi State fills are converted to the complementary Alabama probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current73.0¢
VWAP 24h52.7¢▲ above by 20.3pp
VWAP 7d52.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alabama price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$10
70¢
← now
$6
65¢
$5
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$51.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMississippi State$12.4K@ 47.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMississippi State$17.8K@ 48.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PainfulvoidMississippi State$37.9K
BUY VWAP 47.5¢·4 fills
mooseborzoiiAlabama$13.4K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.