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Spread: BYU (-6.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $146.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $82.5KEvent: BYU vs. TCU
47.5¢
BYU
52.5¢
TCU
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets46Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$38.3K tracked29% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 115 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:TCU · $10.9K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$15.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTCU$11.6K@ 53¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$7.7K
tracked
$38.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: TCU · $10.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 115 minutes old.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "BYU" if BYU win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "TCU".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "BYU" if BYU win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "TCU". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor BYU; negative values favor TCU. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBYU · $0
6hTCU · $7.7K
24hTCU · $30.2K

BYU price VWAP

Volume-weighted BYU price. TCU fills are converted to the complementary BYU probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h47.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d47.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

BYU price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$38.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTCU$11.6K@ 52.7¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYTCU$10.9K@ 52.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—about 21 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ArielFilipinoTCU$11.6K
BUY VWAP 52.7¢·1 fill
0xb4f9…c9a7TCU$10.9K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.