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Spread: Texas State (-8.5)

Sports→Settlement: San Diego StateLiquidity: $17.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $89.0KEvent: Texas State vs. San Diego State
0.0¢
Texas State payout
100.0¢
San Diego State payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:San Diego State · $7.0K net·2 wallets·$7.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTexas State$12.3K@ 54¢·texaskid

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome San Diego State. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-04 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Texas State" if Texas State win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Diego State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas State" if Texas State win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Diego State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 2d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Texas State; negative values favor San Diego State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTexas State · $0
6hTexas State · $1.1K
24hSan Diego State · $12.4K

Texas State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Texas State price. San Diego State fills are converted to the complementary Texas State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h54.0¢▼ below by 54.0pp
VWAP 7d54.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Texas State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$4
60¢
$0
55¢
$2
50¢
$39.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Diego State$11.9K@ 46.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋—3 days ago
BUYTexas State$12.3K@ 54.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

texaskidTexas State$12.3K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
PainfulvoidSan Diego State$11.9K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.