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Dota 2: Two Move vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner

● quote 21s ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $61.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $68.3KEvent: Dota 2: Two Move vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
0.1¢
Two Move
100.0¢
Yellow Submarine
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$10.3K trackedsource coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 62 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYellow Submarine$3.6K@ 100¢·0xbbf3…aa3a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$4.3K
tracked
$10.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: Two Move · $1.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 62 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-22 21:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Two Move" if Two Move win Game 2 against Yellow Submarine.

•This market will resolve to "Yellow Submarine" if Yellow Submarine win Game 2 against Two Move.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Semifinal 2 match between Two Move and Yellow Submarine in the European Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Two Move" if Two Move win Game 2 against Yellow Submarine. This market will resolve to "Yellow Submarine" if Yellow Submarine win Game 2 against Two Move. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 22, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5c5f…a5532 linked markets · $3.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Two Move; negative values favor Yellow Submarine. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTwo Move · $0
6hTwo Move · $4.3K
24hTwo Move · $4.3K

Two Move price VWAP

Volume-weighted Two Move price. Yellow Submarine fills are converted to the complementary Two Move probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h12.2¢▼ below by 12.2pp
VWAP 7d12.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Two Move price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.5K
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$7.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.