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Australia Tour of South Africa ODIs: South Africa vs Australia

● quote 22s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $107.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $182.2KEvent: Australia Tour of South Africa ODIs: South Africa vs Australia
100.0¢
South Africa
0.1¢
Australia
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:77 trades$44.0K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 60 min agoofficial metadata 38s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:South Africa · $2.7K net·6 wallets·$23.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSouth Africa$7.3K@ 73¢·NonTificant

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Australia pressure: $2.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.3K
6h
−$1.9K
tracked
$44.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: South Africa · $2.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 60 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Australia or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.espncricinfo.com/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the cricket match between South Africa and Australia scheduled for September 27 2026 at 4:00 AM ET in Australia Tour of South Africa ODIs. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed/rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: South Africa UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $584 → $537 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor South Africa; negative values favor Australia. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAustralia · $2.3K
6hAustralia · $1.9K
24hAustralia · $3.3K

South Africa price VWAP

Volume-weighted South Africa price. Australia fills are converted to the complementary South Africa probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h57.6¢▲ above by 42.3pp
VWAP 7d57.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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South Africa price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.0K
90¢
$19
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$10
70¢
$14.4K
65¢
$118
60¢
$47
55¢
$3.5K
50¢
$297
45¢
$5.6K
40¢
$12.8K
35¢
$4.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

NonTificantSouth Africa$13.1K
BUY VWAP 72.2¢·6 fills
NonTificantAustralia$10.4K
BUY VWAP 57.4¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.