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Chengdu Open, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov

Sports→Settlement: Shintaro MochizukiLiquidity: $673.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $361.9KEvent: Chengdu Open, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov
100.0¢
Shintaro Mochizuki payout
0.0¢
Pavel Kotov payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:97 trades$128.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 71 min agoofficial metadata 48 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Shintaro Mochizuki · $52.3K net·13 wallets(1🐋)·$74.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYShintaro Mochizuki$20.0K@ 92¢·Marcoli

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Shintaro Mochizuki. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-30 06:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Shintaro Mochizuki and Pavel Kotov in the Chengdu Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Shintaro Mochizuki' if Shintaro Mochizuki advances against Pavel Kotov. This market will resolve to 'Pavel Kotov' if Pavel Kotov advances against Shintaro Mochizuki. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Shintaro Mochizuki@ 88.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Shintaro Mochizuki2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Shintaro Mochizuki@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +16.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Shintaro Mochizuki UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $30.3K → $16.4K · 35s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Shintaro Mochizuki; negative values favor Pavel Kotov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hShintaro Mochizuki · $58.5K
6hShintaro Mochizuki · $68.1K
24hShintaro Mochizuki · $67.0K

Shintaro Mochizuki price VWAP

Volume-weighted Shintaro Mochizuki price. Pavel Kotov fills are converted to the complementary Shintaro Mochizuki probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h70.8¢▲ above by 29.2pp
VWAP 7d70.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Shintaro Mochizuki price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$579
90¢
$44.1K
85¢
$15.8K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$10.3K
65¢
$10.6K
60¢
$406
55¢
$6.7K
50¢
$3.6K
45¢
$19.5K
40¢
$16.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYShintaro Mochizuki$16.1K@ 91.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYShintaro Mochizuki$20.0K@ 92.4¢
Marcoli0xdbbb…05a8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYPavel Kotov$10.1K@ 58.0¢
fastball670x45e4…7e20
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Shintaro Mochizuki$33.6K
BUY VWAP 54.3¢·8 fills
MarcoliShintaro Mochizuki$20.0K
BUY VWAP 92.4¢·1 fill
FlaznorpShintaro Mochizuki$16.1K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·2 fills
fastball67Pavel Kotov$10.1K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.