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Spread: Bills (-6.5)

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Bills vs. Rams
20.0¢
Bills
80.0¢
Rams
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$373 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 56 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$108
6h
−$373
tracked
$373

1 verified profitable wallet: Rams · $373 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 56 minutes old.
  • •Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rams".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Rams, scheduled for October 12 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rams". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo3 linked markets · $3.0K gross
UpTheBlues3 linked markets · $960 gross
0xabb3…e0d02 linked markets · $87 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bills; negative values favor Rams. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRams · $108
6hRams · $373
24hRams · $373

Bills price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bills price. Rams fills are converted to the complementary Bills probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.0¢
VWAP 24h21.0¢▼ below by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d21.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bills price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$373
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Rams (-3.5)
46.5¢$637.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bills vs. Rams
38.5¢$74.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2H Spread: Bills (-13.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Rams (-20.5)
10.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
1H Spread: Bills (-7.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Rams (-1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bills vs. Rams: O/U 54.5
48.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
1H Spread: Rams (-4.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.