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Spread: Rams (-2.5)

● quote 11s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $913.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $51.9KEvent: Bills vs. Rams
56.5¢
Rams
43.5¢
Bills
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection57Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets15Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:22 trades$21.8K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 39 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRams$12.4K@ 57¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Rams pressure: $12.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$12.4K
6h
+$12.5K
tracked
$21.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: Rams · $7.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 39 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Rams or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Rams" if the Rams win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bills".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Rams, scheduled for October 12 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Rams" if the Rams win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bills". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $33.0K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $27.8K gross
quavoo9 linked markets · $10.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Rams; negative values favor Bills. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRams · $12.4K
6hRams · $12.5K
24hRams · $12.5K

Rams price VWAP

Volume-weighted Rams price. Bills fills are converted to the complementary Rams probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h57.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d57.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Rams price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$21.8K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRams$12.4K@ 57.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—40 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Rams (-3.5)
47.5¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
26.5¢$169.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bills vs. Rams
38.5¢$106.8Kpriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bills vs. Rams: O/U 54.5
51.5¢$101.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bills vs. Rams: O/U 50.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bills vs. Rams: O/U 66.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
1H Spread: Rams (-14.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bills vs. Rams: 1H O/U 25.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Rams$12.4K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.