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Spread: Broncos (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: 2 daysLiquidity: $176.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $73.9KEvent: Broncos vs. Chargers
49.5¢
Broncos
50.5¢
Chargers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%
24h sample:3 trades$37.1K tracked67% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChargers$25.6K@ 52¢·SDTrading

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Broncos pressure: $11.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$11.4K
6h
+$11.4K
tracked
$37.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 44 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Broncos or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 20:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Broncos" if the Broncos win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Broncos and Chargers, scheduled for October 11 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Broncos" if the Broncos win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chargers@ 51.0¢27m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Broncos; negative values favor Chargers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBroncos · $11.4K
6hBroncos · $11.4K
24hChargers · $14.2K

Broncos price VWAP

Volume-weighted Broncos price. Chargers fills are converted to the complementary Broncos probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h48.3¢▲ above by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d48.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Broncos price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$43.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBroncos$11.4K@ 49.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—44 minutes ago
BUYChargers$25.6K@ 52.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SDTradingChargers$25.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0xb4f9…c9a7Broncos$11.4K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.