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Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Pipsqueak+4 (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $202.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $70.2KEvent: Dota 2: 1win vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
100.0¢
1win
0.1¢
Pipsqueak+4
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$22.9K trackedsource coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:1win · $1.1K net·2 wallets·$1.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY1win$4.4K@ 53¢·Uniform123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$675
6h
+$5.5K
tracked
$22.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: 1win · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-23 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win wins 2 or more games than Pipsqueak+4 in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to " Pipsqueak+4".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 5 match between 1win and Pipsqueak+4 in the PGL Wallachia Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win wins 2 or more games than Pipsqueak+4 in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to " Pipsqueak+4". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 23, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ribalka2 linked markets · $47.7K gross
0x9e3e…f8823 linked markets · $33.8K gross
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $27.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Pipsqueak+4 DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $46 → $16 · 52s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 1win; negative values favor Pipsqueak+4. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPipsqueak+4 · $675
6h1win · $5.5K
24h1win · $6.6K

1win price VWAP

Volume-weighted 1win price. Pipsqueak+4 fills are converted to the complementary 1win probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h57.5¢▲ above by 42.4pp
VWAP 7d57.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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1win price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$830
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.3K
70¢
$64
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.2K
55¢
$5.5K
50¢
$14.0K
45¢
$14
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.