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Spread: Chiefs (-9.5)

● quote 25s ago
Sports→Closes: 28 minutesLiquidity: $16.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $248.1KEvent: Chiefs vs. Dolphins
48.5¢
Chiefs
51.5¢
Dolphins
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets1Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:47 trades$114.2K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Dolphins · $6.0K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$47.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChiefs$17.4K@ 52¢·YEEES-but-why

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Dolphins pressure: $8.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.0K
6h
+$40.7K
tracked
$114.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: Dolphins · $6.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Dolphins or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 10 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Chiefs and Dolphins, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 10 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz263 linked markets · $606.0K gross
quavoo6 linked markets · $296.9K gross
HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $281.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chiefs; negative values favor Dolphins. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDolphins · $8.0K
6hChiefs · $40.7K
24hChiefs · $36.4K

Chiefs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chiefs price. Dolphins fills are converted to the complementary Chiefs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h51.2¢▼ below by 2.7pp
VWAP 7d51.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chiefs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.8K
50¢
$111.4K
45¢
← now
$2.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChiefs$17.4K@ 52.0¢
YEEES-but-why0x9052…3c2d
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDolphins$13.7K@ 50.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

YEEES-but-whyChiefs$21.2K
BUY VWAP 51.6¢·2 fills
maz26Dolphins$17.6K
BUY VWAP 49.5¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardChiefs$14.5K
BUY VWAP 50.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.