PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner

● quote 38s ago
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $904.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $547.6KEvent: Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D
100.0¢
Aurora
0.1¢
GamerLegion
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets17Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 19 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:157 trades$205.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora · $3.7K net·19 wallets·$22.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora$16.2K@ 71¢·Diabolical-Prize

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

GamerLegion pressure: $43.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$43.8K
6h
−$27.2K
tracked
$205.1K

19 verified profitable wallets: Aurora · $3.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -21.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from GamerLegion or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-29 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against GamerLegion.

•This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win Game 1 against Aurora.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Aurora and GamerLegion in the BLAST Slam Group D, initially scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against GamerLegion. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win Game 1 against Aurora. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $42.8K gross
CORGI83 linked markets · $13.1K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $6.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY GamerLegion@ 22.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -15.0pp
Latest book event: GamerLegion DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $927 → $1.8K · 23s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora; negative values favor GamerLegion. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGamerLegion · $43.8K
6hGamerLegion · $27.2K
24hGamerLegion · $27.2K

Aurora price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora price. GamerLegion fills are converted to the complementary Aurora probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h83.0¢▲ above by 17.0pp
VWAP 7d83.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Aurora price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$73.2K
90¢
$8.1K
85¢
$8.6K
80¢
$8.8K
75¢
$2.7K
70¢
$76.3K
65¢
$27.4K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAurora$12.2K@ 99.9¢
jackcartwright0x332f…1ee8
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYAurora$16.2K@ 70.8¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D
86.0¢$180.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner
62.0¢$13.7Kpriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Spain win on 2026-09-29?
81.5¢$572.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$434.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Adana: Carole Monnet vs Cagla Buyukakcay
0.1¢$386.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$335.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30GamerLegion$28.0K
BUY VWAP 30.8¢·13 fills
Diabolical-PrizeAurora$24.8K
BUY VWAP 71.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.