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Hangzhou Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taro Daniel

● quote 14s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $187.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $394.1KEvent: Hangzhou Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taro Daniel
52.5¢
Fabian Marozsan
47.5¢
Taro Daniel
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets22Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:184 trades$134.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Fabian Marozsan · $6.9K net·10 wallets·$30.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLFabian Marozsan$23.4K@ 65¢·88M

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Taro Daniel pressure: $22.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$22.1K
6h
−$22.4K
tracked
$134.5K

10 verified profitable wallets: Fabian Marozsan · $6.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 52

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Taro Daniel or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-02 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Fabian Marozsan and Taro Daniel in the Hangzhou Open, originally scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Fabian Marozsan' if Fabian Marozsan advances against Taro Daniel. This market will resolve to 'Taro Daniel' if Taro Daniel advances against Fabian Marozsan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Fabian Marozsan DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $919 → $43.1K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Fabian Marozsan; negative values favor Taro Daniel. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTaro Daniel · $22.1K
6hTaro Daniel · $22.4K
24hTaro Daniel · $14.9K

Fabian Marozsan price VWAP

Volume-weighted Fabian Marozsan price. Taro Daniel fills are converted to the complementary Fabian Marozsan probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h55.3¢▼ below by 2.8pp
VWAP 7d55.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Fabian Marozsan price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$79
65¢
$50.7K
60¢
$21.8K
55¢
$17.5K
50¢
← now
$7.3K
45¢
$8.5K
40¢
$2.3K
35¢
$7.6K
30¢
$9.6K
25¢
$9.2K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFabian Marozsan$23.4K@ 65.0¢
88M0xd9dd…b525
🐋—12 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesTaro Daniel$14.8K
BUY VWAP 47.9¢·18 fills
88MFabian Marozsan$13.9K
BUY VWAP 40.6¢·4 fills
ferrariChampions2026Fabian Marozsan$11.1K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.