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LoL: Solary vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 4 Winner

● quote 21 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $186.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $118.3KEvent: LoL: Solary vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs
100.0¢
Solary
0.1¢
⁠Movistar KOI Fénix
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:22 trades$36.4K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Solary · $3.4K net·2 wallets·$3.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSolary$14.5K@ 100¢·Sisyphus.

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

⁠Movistar KOI Fénix pressure: $3.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.1K
6h
+$17.8K
tracked
$36.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Solary · $3.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 21 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 40 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Solary" if Solary win Game 4 against ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix.

•This market will resolve to "⁠Movistar KOI Fénix" if ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix win Game 4 against Solary.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Quarterfinal 1 match between Solary and ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix in the World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Solary" if Solary win Game 4 against ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix. This market will resolve to "⁠Movistar KOI Fénix" if ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix win Game 4 against Solary. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 27, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Sisyphus.4 linked markets · $62.6K gross
owom66vvssuv3 linked markets · $40.8K gross
Lucas1tb3 linked markets · $24.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Solary; negative values favor ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h⁠Movistar KOI Fénix · $3.1K
6hSolary · $17.8K
24hSolary · $17.8K

Solary price VWAP

Volume-weighted Solary price. ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix fills are converted to the complementary Solary probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h88.4¢▲ above by 11.6pp
VWAP 7d88.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Solary price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$21.6K
90¢
$1.1K
85¢
$1.0K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$6.1K
65¢
$5.1K
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.4K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSolary$14.5K@ 99.9¢
Sisyphus.0xfc25…1f7f
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sisyphus.Solary$15.5K
BUY VWAP 99.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.