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Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

● quote 6 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $496.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $885.4KEvent: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
1.0¢
LGD Gaming
99.9¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets28Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 24 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:250 trades$323.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:LGD Gaming · $16.9K net·24 wallets·$61.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNatus Vincere$26.0K@ 100¢·0xe2d0…7bbf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

LGD Gaming pressure: $49.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$49.2K
6h
+$38.2K
tracked
$323.0K

24 verified profitable wallets: LGD Gaming · $16.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from LGD Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against LGD Gaming.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Final match between LGD Gaming and Natus Vincere in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against LGD Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 27, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Sunshine.Smile2 linked markets · $61.7K gross
0xe2d0…7bbf2 linked markets · $37.6K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $34.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Natus Vincere@ 97.0¢48m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Natus Vincere UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $5.0K → $5.0K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor LGD Gaming; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLGD Gaming · $49.2K
6hLGD Gaming · $38.2K
24hLGD Gaming · $38.2K

LGD Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted LGD Gaming price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary LGD Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h31.2¢▼ below by 30.2pp
VWAP 7d31.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

LGD Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$17.1K
50¢
$108.9K
45¢
$42.8K
40¢
$15.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$8.8K
25¢
$6.8K
20¢
$2.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$5.9K
5¢
$10.5K
0¢
← now
$104.6K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNatus Vincere$26.0K@ 99.9¢0xe2d0…7bbf🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYNatus Vincere$15.4K@ 99.4¢
LhordGryffin0x9909…311c
🐋—40 minutes ago
BUYLGD Gaming$11.0K@ 49.0¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LhordGryffinNatus Vincere$15.4K
BUY VWAP 99.4¢·1 fill
Sunshine.SmileLGD Gaming$14.9K
BUY VWAP 47.9¢·2 fills
0xe16d…5e30Natus Vincere$13.8K
BUY VWAP 48.9¢·7 fills
0xf201…527eLGD Gaming$12.8K
BUY VWAP 48.6¢·3 fills
CORGI8Natus Vincere$12.2K
BUY VWAP 48.4¢·5 fills
darkmarketmakerNatus Vincere$10.8K
BUY VWAP 93.9¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.