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Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Billy Harris vs Felix Balshaw

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $98.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $161.1KEvent: Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Billy Harris vs Felix Balshaw
42.5¢
Billy Harris
57.5¢
Felix Balshaw
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution29Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority38Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:81 trades$57.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Felix Balshaw · $2.7K net·7 wallets·$10.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLFelix Balshaw$10.1K@ 79¢·Antblack

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Felix Balshaw pressure: $6.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.0K
6h
−$6.4K
tracked
$57.1K

7 verified profitable wallets: Felix Balshaw · $2.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 38

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 22 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Felix Balshaw or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Billy Harris and Felix Balshaw in the Mouilleron-Le-Captif, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Billy Harris' if Billy Harris advances against Felix Balshaw. This market will resolve to 'Felix Balshaw' if Felix Balshaw advances against Billy Harris. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Billy Harris UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $10.7K → $14.7K · 39s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Billy Harris; negative values favor Felix Balshaw. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFelix Balshaw · $6.0K
6hFelix Balshaw · $6.4K
24hFelix Balshaw · $6.4K

Billy Harris price VWAP

Volume-weighted Billy Harris price. Felix Balshaw fills are converted to the complementary Billy Harris probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h40.7¢▲ above by 1.8pp
VWAP 7d40.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Billy Harris price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$386
60¢
$3.4K
55¢
$13.5K
50¢
$8.1K
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
← now
$7.7K
35¢
$65
30¢
$433
25¢
$1.5K
20¢
$20.6K
15¢
$40
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFelix Balshaw$10.1K@ 79.0¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xabidakingFelix Balshaw$12.1K
BUY VWAP 52.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.