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Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Wildcard (+1.5)

● quote 6 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $240.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $113.9KEvent: Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Wildcard (BO3) - iBUYPOWER Masters FML Playoffs
100.0¢
Liquid
0.1¢
Wildcard
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly24Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:28 trades$43.5K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLiquid$14.1K@ 41¢·StasPanda

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$245
6h
+$15.8K
tracked
$43.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: Liquid · $4.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-28 04:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid wins 2 or more maps than Wildcard in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wildcard".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand final match between Liquid and Wildcard in the iBUYPOWER Masters FML Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid wins 2 or more maps than Wildcard in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wildcard". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 27, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Iostfd3 linked markets · $27.1K gross
funfacts2 linked markets · $88 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Liquid UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $44 → $194 · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Liquid; negative values favor Wildcard. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWildcard · $245
6hLiquid · $15.8K
24hLiquid · $19.5K

Liquid price VWAP

Volume-weighted Liquid price. Wildcard fills are converted to the complementary Liquid probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h42.8¢▲ above by 57.1pp
VWAP 7d42.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Liquid price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$265
90¢
$0
85¢
$11
80¢
$19
75¢
$9
70¢
$26
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$6.9K
40¢
$36.2K
35¢
$7
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLiquid$14.1K@ 41.3¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

StasPandaLiquid$14.1K
BUY VWAP 41.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.