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Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $55.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $654.4KEvent: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club
36.5¢
YES
63.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:46 trades$262.9K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $2.1K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$35.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$45.4K@ 38¢·totoro3miyazaki

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $17.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$17.9K
6h
+$88.1K
tracked
$262.9K

6 verified profitable wallets: NO · $2.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 43

Since latest accumulation: -2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Athletic Club wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 10, 2026 If Athletic Club wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Flaznorp2 linked markets · $18.2K gross
UpTheBlues2 linked markets · $15.6K gross
GoalLineGhost2 linked markets · $4.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 39.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 39.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $30 → $24.1K · 42s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $17.9K
6hYES · $88.1K
24hYES · $88.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h38.5¢▼ below by 2.0pp
VWAP 7d38.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$2.4K
35¢
← now
$258.8K
30¢
$1.7K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$17.4K@ 39.0¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$20.2K@ 62.0¢
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff528140x709e…66f5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$21.0K@ 61.0¢
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff528140x709e…66f5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$15.3K@ 61.0¢
norrisfan0xe72b…b0a0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$10.3K@ 39.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$15.8K@ 39.0¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$32.3K@ 39.0¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$45.4K@ 38.0¢
totoro3miyazaki0x0f6f…d977
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$17.5K@ 37.0¢
1l2ihj34li12u340xb52e…285c
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

totoro3miyazakiYes$141.2K
BUY VWAP 38.6¢·9 fills
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814No$45.6K
BUY VWAP 61.5¢·4 fills
1l2ihj34li12u34Yes$17.5K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill
norrisfanNo$15.3K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesNo$13.6K
BUY VWAP 60.8¢·6 fills
0x2c33…0563Yes$10.3K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.