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Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $479.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $101.0KEvent: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
44.5¢
Chicago Cubs
55.5¢
San Diego Padres
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$42.6K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres$21.1K@ 55¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$1
6h
−$26.3K
tracked
$42.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: San Diego Padres · $30.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game.

•This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres, scheduled for September 29 at 6:33AM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 56.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chicago Cubs; negative values favor San Diego Padres. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChicago Cubs · $1
6hSan Diego Padres · $26.3K
24hSan Diego Padres · $17.8K

Chicago Cubs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chicago Cubs price. San Diego Padres fills are converted to the complementary Chicago Cubs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h45.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d45.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chicago Cubs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$37.4K
40¢
← now
$5.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres$21.1K@ 55.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49San Diego Padres$30.2K
BUY VWAP 55.2¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.