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Adana: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Simona Waltert

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $143.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $182.7KEvent: Adana: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Simona Waltert
10.0¢
Anastasia Tikhonova
90.0¢
Simona Waltert
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets64Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:65 trades$77.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Anastasia Tikhonova · $9.8K net·7 wallets·$15.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLSimona Waltert$20.1K@ 79¢·Antblack

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Anastasia Tikhonova pressure: $2.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.2K
6h
−$10.2K
tracked
$77.7K

7 verified profitable wallets: Anastasia Tikhonova · $9.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 72% · priority 58

Since latest large flow: +6.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Anastasia Tikhonova or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Anastasia Tikhonova and Simona Waltert in the Adana, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Anastasia Tikhonova' if Anastasia Tikhonova advances against Simona Waltert. This market will resolve to 'Simona Waltert' if Simona Waltert advances against Anastasia Tikhonova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Simona Waltert@ 95.0¢2m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Anastasia Tikhonova DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.6K → $747 · 30s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Anastasia Tikhonova; negative values favor Simona Waltert. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAnastasia Tikhonova · $2.2K
6hSimona Waltert · $10.2K
24hSimona Waltert · $10.2K

Anastasia Tikhonova price VWAP

Volume-weighted Anastasia Tikhonova price. Simona Waltert fills are converted to the complementary Anastasia Tikhonova probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current10.0¢
VWAP 24h57.5¢▼ below by 47.5pp
VWAP 7d57.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Anastasia Tikhonova price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$2.8K
75¢
$0
70¢
$59
65¢
$118
60¢
$8.8K
55¢
$21.0K
50¢
$0
45¢
$16
40¢
$64
35¢
$4.8K
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.9K
20¢
$20.5K
15¢
$16.7K
10¢
← now
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLSimona Waltert$11.0K@ 82.8¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—6 minutes ago
SELLSimona Waltert$20.1K@ 79.0¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—18 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AntblackSimona Waltert$19.5K
BUY VWAP 42.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.