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Porto 2: Michael Geerts vs Joao Domingues

Sports→Settlement: Michael GeertsLiquidity: $527.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $419.5KEvent: Porto 2: Michael Geerts vs Joao Domingues
100.0¢
Michael Geerts payout
0.0¢
Joao Domingues payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:57 trades$188.3K tracked12% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Joao Domingues · $10.0K net·4 wallets·$15.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMichael Geerts$18.6K@ 82¢·0x004c…bb89

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Michael Geerts. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-05 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Michael Geerts and Joao Domingues in the Porto 2, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michael Geerts' if Michael Geerts advances against Joao Domingues. This market will resolve to 'Joao Domingues' if Joao Domingues advances against Michael Geerts. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGESELL Michael Geerts@ 45.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASESELL Michael Geerts1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWSELL Michael Geerts@ 63.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -16.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Michael Geerts@ 69.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Joao Domingues DOWN 21.5pp · near-book depth $20.6K → $1.8K · 21s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Michael Geerts; negative values favor Joao Domingues. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJoao Domingues · $19.2K
6hJoao Domingues · $39.7K
24hJoao Domingues · $39.7K

Michael Geerts price VWAP

Volume-weighted Michael Geerts price. Joao Domingues fills are converted to the complementary Michael Geerts probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h72.2¢▲ above by 27.8pp
VWAP 7d72.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Michael Geerts price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$17.0K
90¢
$0
85¢
$5.0K
80¢
$50.6K
75¢
$14.2K
70¢
$98
65¢
$60.6K
60¢
$12.8K
55¢
$11.4K
50¢
$4.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$8.3K
30¢
$10
25¢
$0
20¢
$1.3K
15¢
$0
10¢
$2.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMichael Geerts$11.1K@ 68.0¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLMichael Geerts$13.5K@ 68.0¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLMichael Geerts$12.1K@ 68.0¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLMichael Geerts$10.1K@ 57.0¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMichael Geerts$14.0K@ 78.0¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMichael Geerts$13.3K@ 82.9¢
Gambler6610x4419…fcf4
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMichael Geerts$18.6K@ 82.0¢0x004c…bb89🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x004c…bb89Michael Geerts$42.4K
BUY VWAP 81.1¢·3 fills
Gambler661Michael Geerts$13.3K
BUY VWAP 82.9¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Joao Domingues$12.5K
BUY VWAP 21.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.