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Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $210.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $433.3KEvent: Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen
93.5¢
Carlos Alcaraz
6.5¢
Alex Michelsen
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:128 trades$184.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $42.9K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$44.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$34.3K@ 83¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Carlos Alcaraz SETUP
What the tape says

Carlos Alcaraz pressure: $25.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$25.5K
6h
+$146.5K
tracked
$184.1K

11 verified profitable wallets: Carlos Alcaraz · $42.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 71

Since latest large flow: +8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Carlos Alcaraz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alex Michelsen in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 86.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 84.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 84.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp
Latest book event: Alex Michelsen UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $1.9K → $8.7K · 20s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Carlos Alcaraz; negative values favor Alex Michelsen. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $25.5K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $146.5K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $146.5K

Carlos Alcaraz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Carlos Alcaraz price. Alex Michelsen fills are converted to the complementary Carlos Alcaraz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current93.5¢
VWAP 24h82.7¢▲ above by 10.8pp
VWAP 7d82.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Carlos Alcaraz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$16.3K
85¢
$34.9K
80¢
$110.6K
75¢
$2.7K
70¢
$9.5K
65¢
$3.6K
60¢
$6.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$21.1K@ 86.0¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$21.0K@ 84.0¢
coinlaundry0xe8d7…1252
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$34.3K@ 83.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Carlos Alcaraz$34.3K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·1 fill
beeemwCarlos Alcaraz$21.1K
BUY VWAP 86.0¢·1 fill
coinlaundryCarlos Alcaraz$21.0K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·1 fill
KkunnAlex Michelsen$11.9K
BUY VWAP 17.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.