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Spread: UTSA (-6.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: 32 minutesLiquidity: $589.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $190.5KEvent: South Florida vs. UTSA
47.5¢
UTSA
52.5¢
South Florida
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$92.2K tracked22% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUTSA$50.0K@ 49¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

South Florida pressure: $7.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.6K
6h
+$37.2K
tracked
$92.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: South Florida · $6.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from South Florida or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "UTSA" if UTSA win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "South Florida".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 8 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "UTSA" if UTSA win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "South Florida". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY UTSA@ 49.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor UTSA; negative values favor South Florida. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSouth Florida · $7.6K
6hUTSA · $37.2K
24hUTSA · $28.9K

UTSA price VWAP

Volume-weighted UTSA price. South Florida fills are converted to the complementary UTSA probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h49.1¢▼ below by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d49.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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UTSA price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$16.2K
45¢
← now
$76.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUTSA$50.0K@ 49.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYSouth Florida$12.3K@ 49.8¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaUTSA$50.0K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
ArielFilipinoSouth Florida$12.3K
BUY VWAP 49.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.