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Spread: San Jose State (-4.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $220.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $58.0KEvent: Wyoming vs. San Jose State
47.5¢
San Jose State
52.5¢
Wyoming
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly9Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%
24h sample:6 trades$29.5K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWyoming$16.6K@ 52¢·0x4924…3782

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$78
6h
−$29.4K
tracked
$29.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "San Jose State" if San Jose State win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wyoming".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 9 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Jose State" if San Jose State win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wyoming". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Wyoming@ 53.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor San Jose State; negative values favor Wyoming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSan Jose State · $78
6hWyoming · $29.4K
24hWyoming · $29.4K

San Jose State price VWAP

Volume-weighted San Jose State price. Wyoming fills are converted to the complementary San Jose State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h47.3¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d47.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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San Jose State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$29.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYWyoming$12.9K@ 53.6¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYWyoming$16.6K@ 52.0¢0x4924…3782🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x4924…3782Wyoming$16.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
ArielFilipinoWyoming$12.9K
BUY VWAP 53.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.