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Jingshan: Yuta Shimizu vs Bernard Tomic

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $138.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $137.5KEvent: Jingshan: Yuta Shimizu vs Bernard Tomic
0.1¢
Yuta Shimizu
100.0¢
Bernard Tomic
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$49.8K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 27s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Yuta Shimizu · $2.1K net·6 wallets·$18.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYuta Shimizu$15.0K@ 30¢·0x78be…bde0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Yuta Shimizu pressure: $2.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.2K
6h
+$2.0K
tracked
$49.8K

6 verified profitable wallets: Yuta Shimizu · $2.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 44

Since latest large flow: -34.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Yuta Shimizu or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yuta Shimizu and Bernard Tomic in the Jingshan, originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yuta Shimizu' if Yuta Shimizu advances against Bernard Tomic. This market will resolve to 'Bernard Tomic' if Bernard Tomic advances against Yuta Shimizu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Yuta Shimizu6m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Yuta Shimizu@ 35.0¢14m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Bernard Tomic36m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Bernard Tomic@ 69.0¢38m ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp
Latest book event: Yuta Shimizu DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $7.7K → $1 · 23s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Yuta Shimizu; negative values favor Bernard Tomic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYuta Shimizu · $2.2K
6hYuta Shimizu · $2.0K
24hYuta Shimizu · $41

Yuta Shimizu price VWAP

Volume-weighted Yuta Shimizu price. Bernard Tomic fills are converted to the complementary Yuta Shimizu probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h39.3¢▼ below by 39.3pp
VWAP 7d39.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Yuta Shimizu price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.3K
60¢
$1.9K
55¢
$99
50¢
$360
45¢
$13.3K
40¢
$1.2K
35¢
$16.3K
30¢
$529
25¢
$15.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYuta Shimizu$15.0K@ 29.8¢0x78be…bde0🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYBernard Tomic$13.0K@ 64.4¢
Kev690x1250…8f99
🐋—43 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Yuta Shimizu$15.0K
BUY VWAP 29.8¢·1 fill
Kev69Bernard Tomic$13.0K
BUY VWAP 64.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.