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Spread: 49ers (-8.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: 3 minutesLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $13.5KEvent: Commanders vs. 49ers
44.5¢
49ers
55.5¢
Commanders
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection69Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%
24h sample:8 trades$5.1K trackedsource coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 45 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCommanders$3.4K@ 57¢·rollobravado

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Commanders pressure: $3.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.5K
6h
−$4.8K
tracked
$5.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 45 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Commanders or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-20 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Commanders and 49ers, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05633 linked markets · $103.8K gross
0F624 linked markets · $70.1K gross
0xb4f9…c9a74 linked markets · $64.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 49ers; negative values favor Commanders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCommanders · $3.5K
6hCommanders · $4.8K
24hCommanders · $4.6K

49ers price VWAP

Volume-weighted 49ers price. Commanders fills are converted to the complementary 49ers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h44.1¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d44.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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49ers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$1.6K
40¢
← now
$3.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Commanders vs. 49ers
23.5¢$1.1Mpriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-7.5)
46.5¢$407.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5
46.5¢$385.0Kpriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Commanders (-3.5)
14.5¢$136.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 51.5
49.5¢$120.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-6.5)
55.5¢$79.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Commanders (-14.5)
2.5¢$75.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 50.5
53.5¢$49.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.