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Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $185.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $491.0KEvent: Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D
100.0¢
Aurora
0.1¢
Team Liquid
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets19Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority47Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 22 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:239 trades$213.1K trackedsource coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Liquid · $2.0K net·22 wallets·$23.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora$7.0K@ 60¢·Harekrishna666

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Aurora pressure: $9.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$9.7K
6h
+$13.2K
tracked
$213.1K

22 verified profitable wallets: Team Liquid · $2.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 47

Since latest market sweep: -59.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Aurora or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-01 21:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 2 against Team Liquid.

•This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 2 against Aurora.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Winner match between Aurora and Team Liquid in the BLAST Slam Group D, initially scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 2 against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 2 against Aurora. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $54.3K gross
Harekrishna6662 linked markets · $35.9K gross
SineNooneEI3 linked markets · $21.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Team Liquid@ 60.0¢15m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Aurora DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $725 → $871 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora; negative values favor Team Liquid. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAurora · $9.7K
6hAurora · $13.2K
24hAurora · $13.2K

Aurora price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora price. Team Liquid fills are converted to the complementary Aurora probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h63.8¢▲ above by 36.2pp
VWAP 7d63.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$31.7K
90¢
$7.1K
85¢
$5.1K
80¢
$5.3K
75¢
$3.7K
70¢
$12.5K
65¢
$12.1K
60¢
$52.5K
55¢
$37.1K
50¢
$14.8K
45¢
$5.1K
40¢
$21.7K
35¢
$2.3K
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

GameGambleStakesAurora$10.4K
BUY VWAP 94.7¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.