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Columbus: Bryce Nakashima vs Keegan Smith

Sports→Settlement: Keegan SmithLiquidity: $696.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $400.5KEvent: Columbus: Bryce Nakashima vs Keegan Smith
0.0¢
Bryce Nakashima payout
100.0¢
Keegan Smith payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:153 trades$123.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 72 min agoofficial metadata 37 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bryce Nakashima · $10.5K net·14 wallets·$36.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBryce Nakashima$14.5K@ 39¢·0x78be…bde0

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Keegan Smith. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-08 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Bryce Nakashima and Keegan Smith in the Columbus, originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Bryce Nakashima' if Bryce Nakashima advances against Keegan Smith. This market will resolve to 'Keegan Smith' if Keegan Smith advances against Bryce Nakashima. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Keegan Smith UP 8.0pp · near-book depth $22.6K → $1.7K · 8s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bryce Nakashima; negative values favor Keegan Smith. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBryce Nakashima · $24.3K
6hBryce Nakashima · $36.8K
24hBryce Nakashima · $36.8K

Bryce Nakashima price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bryce Nakashima price. Keegan Smith fills are converted to the complementary Bryce Nakashima probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h36.4¢▼ below by 36.4pp
VWAP 7d36.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bryce Nakashima price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$3.5K
85¢
$5.6K
80¢
$4.5K
75¢
$1.6K
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.6K
60¢
$71
55¢
$4.9K
50¢
$1.8K
45¢
$8.1K
40¢
$14.5K
35¢
$27.8K
30¢
$2.1K
25¢
$38
20¢
$10.8K
15¢
$8.6K
10¢
$4.2K
5¢
$3.7K
0¢
← now
$18.6K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBryce Nakashima$14.5K@ 39.0¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x78be…bde0Bryce Nakashima$14.5K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.