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Lakers vs. Warriors

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $92.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $154.9KEvent: Lakers vs. Warriors
2.2¢
Lakers
97.8¢
Warriors
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets48Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:62 trades$34.1K trackedsource coverage 20%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Warriors · $6.7K net·5 wallets·$14.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWarriors$6.2K@ 67¢·0x5292…fb5e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Lakers pressure: $1.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.6K
6h
−$7.7K
tracked
$34.1K

5 verified profitable wallets: Warriors · $6.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Lakers or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers".

•If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 6 at 10:00PM ET: If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Lakers UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $323 → $3.3K · 19s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lakers; negative values favor Warriors. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLakers · $1.6K
6hWarriors · $7.7K
24hWarriors · $5.5K

Lakers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lakers price. Warriors fills are converted to the complementary Lakers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.2¢
VWAP 24h31.6¢▼ below by 29.4pp
VWAP 7d31.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lakers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$2.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$24.1K
25¢
$38
20¢
$240
15¢
$17
10¢
$2.2K
5¢
$4.0K
0¢
← now
$1.2K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.