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Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $67.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $181.8KEvent: Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
4.3¢
Valentin Vacherot
95.7¢
Stefanos Tsitsipas
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection44Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:56 trades$98.3K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Stefanos Tsitsipas · $15.0K net·7 wallets·$24.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYStefanos Tsitsipas$12.0K@ 63¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Stefanos Tsitsipas pressure: $43.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$43.1K
6h
−$75.5K
tracked
$98.3K

7 verified profitable wallets: Stefanos Tsitsipas · $15.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 71

Since latest large flow: +36.7pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 36.7pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Stefanos Tsitsipas or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 03:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Vacherot and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 11:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Vacherot' if Valentin Vacherot advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Valentin Vacherot. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Stefanos Tsitsipas38m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Stefanos Tsitsipas39m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Stefanos Tsitsipas@ 59.0¢44m ago
15m CONFIRMED +24.0pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY Stefanos Tsitsipas@ 72.0¢53m ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp
Latest book event: Stefanos Tsitsipas UP 3.3pp · near-book depth $32.3K → $1.7K · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Valentin Vacherot; negative values favor Stefanos Tsitsipas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hStefanos Tsitsipas · $43.1K
6hStefanos Tsitsipas · $75.5K
24hStefanos Tsitsipas · $84.0K

Valentin Vacherot price VWAP

Volume-weighted Valentin Vacherot price. Stefanos Tsitsipas fills are converted to the complementary Valentin Vacherot probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.3¢
VWAP 24h31.5¢▼ below by 27.2pp
VWAP 7d31.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Valentin Vacherot price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$26.6K
35¢
$38.2K
30¢
$12.2K
25¢
$2.7K
20¢
$2.1K
15¢
$1.3K
10¢
$65
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$15.0K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYStefanos Tsitsipas$12.0K@ 69.5¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYStefanos Tsitsipas$12.0K@ 62.8¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYStefanos Tsitsipas$10.0K@ 62.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYStefanos Tsitsipas$10.1K@ 62.0¢0x0cdf…ec9e🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooStefanos Tsitsipas$26.7K
BUY VWAP 66.5¢·3 fills
0x0cdf…ec9eStefanos Tsitsipas$10.1K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill
KkunnStefanos Tsitsipas$10.0K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.