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Japan Open Tennis Championships: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $346.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $386.6KEvent: Japan Open Tennis Championships: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe
67.5¢
Arthur Fils payout
32.5¢
Frances Tiafoe payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Fils · $6.4K net·8 wallets·$19.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrances Tiafoe$20.9K@ 32¢·Antblack

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-09 08:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Frances Tiafoe in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Arthur Fils. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 1d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 1d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 23.0¢1d ago
15m INVALIDATED -7.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fils; negative values favor Frances Tiafoe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fils · $1.7K
6hFrances Tiafoe · $57.1K
24hFrances Tiafoe · $58.8K

Arthur Fils price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fils price. Frances Tiafoe fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fils probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current67.5¢
VWAP 24h75.8¢▼ below by 8.3pp
VWAP 7d75.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fils price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$13.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$10.3K
80¢
$7.2K
75¢
$4.5K
70¢
$17.2K
65¢
← now
$48.7K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrances Tiafoe$20.9K@ 31.8¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AntblackFrances Tiafoe$39.5K
BUY VWAP 31.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.