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Map Handicap: GLS (-1.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $13.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $55.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Grêmio Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Playoffs
73.5¢
Galorys
26.5¢
Grêmio Esports
9.0¢
Spread
anomaly16Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution18Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$39.8K trackedsource coverage 72%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Galorys · $33.0K net·2 wallets·$33.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGalorys$8.9K@ 67¢·fRibrenlc

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$11
6h
+$37.5K
tracked
$39.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: Galorys · $33.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
9.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +10.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 9.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 10.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 04:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Galorys" if Galorys wins 2 or more maps than Grêmio Esports in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Grêmio Esports".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between Galorys and Grêmio Esports in the CCT South America Series 6 Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Galorys" if Galorys wins 2 or more maps than Grêmio Esports in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Grêmio Esports". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Galorys@ 68.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
Latest book event: Galorys UP 10.5pp · near-book depth $5 → $330 · 117s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Galorys; negative values favor Grêmio Esports. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGalorys · $11
6hGalorys · $37.5K
24hGalorys · $37.5K

Galorys price VWAP

Volume-weighted Galorys price. Grêmio Esports fills are converted to the complementary Galorys probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current73.5¢
VWAP 24h66.8¢▲ above by 6.7pp
VWAP 7d66.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Galorys price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$39.8K
60¢
$31
55¢
$24
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x29b5…cc6cGalorys$24.1K
BUY VWAP 66.8¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.