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San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers

● quote 44s ago
Sports→Closes: 8 daysLiquidity: $790.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.0KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
35.5¢
San Diego Padres
64.5¢
Milwaukee Brewers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$25.7K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres$13.7K@ 35¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
−$2.3K
tracked
$25.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: San Diego Padres · $13.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 35 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 00:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers, scheduled for October 3 at 8:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor San Diego Padres; negative values favor Milwaukee Brewers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSan Diego Padres · $5
6hMilwaukee Brewers · $2.3K
24hSan Diego Padres · $1.7K

San Diego Padres price VWAP

Volume-weighted San Diego Padres price. Milwaukee Brewers fills are converted to the complementary San Diego Padres probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current35.5¢
VWAP 24h35.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d35.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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San Diego Padres price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$25.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres$13.7K@ 35.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563San Diego Padres$13.7K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.