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Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $45.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $357.5KEvent: Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D
52.5¢
Karmine Corp
47.5¢
Nongshim RedForce
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets96Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:129 trades$126.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Karmine Corp · $20.9K net·7 wallets·$21.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNongshim RedForce$19.2K@ 43¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Karmine Corp SETUP
What the tape says

Karmine Corp pressure: $10.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.1K
6h
+$15.5K
tracked
$126.0K

7 verified profitable wallets: Karmine Corp · $20.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 67

Since latest large flow: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Karmine Corp or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 17:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against Nongshim RedForce.

•This market will resolve to "Nongshim RedForce" if Nongshim RedForce win the match against Karmine Corp.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between Karmine Corp and Nongshim RedForce in the VCT Champions Group D, initially scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against Nongshim RedForce. This market will resolve to "Nongshim RedForce" if Nongshim RedForce win the match against Karmine Corp. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 17, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 3, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
fantasy77882 linked markets · $29.7K gross
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $11.2K gross
xytest3 linked markets · $5.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Nongshim RedForce@ 41.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -19.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Nongshim RedForce@ 43.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -22.0pp
Latest book event: Karmine Corp UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $5.6K → $8.5K · 80s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Karmine Corp; negative values favor Nongshim RedForce. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKarmine Corp · $10.1K
6hKarmine Corp · $15.5K
24hKarmine Corp · $17.3K

Karmine Corp price VWAP

Volume-weighted Karmine Corp price. Nongshim RedForce fills are converted to the complementary Karmine Corp probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h59.9¢▼ below by 7.4pp
VWAP 7d59.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Karmine Corp price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$2.4K
80¢
$5.0K
75¢
$4.2K
70¢
$1.5K
65¢
$1.6K
60¢
$1.5K
55¢
$103.6K
50¢
← now
$6.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNongshim RedForce$19.2K@ 43.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNongshim RedForce$14.3K@ 43.0¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Nongshim RedForce$29.1K
BUY VWAP 42.7¢·2 fills
fantasy7788Nongshim RedForce$19.7K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·2 fills
PS003Karmine Corp$12.5K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.