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China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $562.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $713.9KEvent: China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa
34.5¢
Xinran Sun payout
65.5¢
Cristina Bucsa payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:201 trades$380.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 52 min agoofficial metadata 44 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cristina Bucsa · $69.0K net·15 wallets(1🐋)·$103.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLXinran Sun$147.9K@ 100¢·Kkunn

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-10 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Xinran Sun and Cristina Bucsa in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Xinran Sun' if Xinran Sun advances against Cristina Bucsa. This market will resolve to 'Cristina Bucsa' if Cristina Bucsa advances against Xinran Sun. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 44m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 44m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cristina Bucsa@ 69.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -16.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Xinran Sun@ 35.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: Cristina Bucsa DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $61 → $0 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Xinran Sun; negative values favor Cristina Bucsa. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCristina Bucsa · $157.7K
6hCristina Bucsa · $178.9K
24hCristina Bucsa · $223.2K

Xinran Sun price VWAP

Volume-weighted Xinran Sun price. Cristina Bucsa fills are converted to the complementary Xinran Sun probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.5¢
VWAP 24h68.4¢▼ below by 33.9pp
VWAP 7d68.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Xinran Sun price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$171.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$240
70¢
$4.6K
65¢
$7.1K
60¢
$9.9K
55¢
$29.1K
50¢
$1.9K
45¢
$22.8K
40¢
$2.5K
35¢
$43.9K
30¢
← now
$88.2K
25¢
$59
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLXinran Sun$147.9K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCristina Bucsa$50.7K@ 66.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYXinran Sun$16.2K@ 34.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Cristina Bucsa$58.7K
BUY VWAP 65.7¢·2 fills
KkunnXinran Sun$18.7K
BUY VWAP 33.9¢·3 fills
LuzzzerCristina Bucsa$14.7K
BUY VWAP 39.9¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardXinran Sun$14.0K
BUY VWAP 45.9¢·4 fills
0x78be…bde0Xinran Sun$12.6K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardCristina Bucsa$10.7K
BUY VWAP 54.7¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.