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China Open: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $216.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $3.2KEvent: China Open: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin
57.5¢
Andrey Rublev
42.5¢
Roman Safiullin
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly8Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%
24h sample:7 trades$19.8K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRoman Safiullin$10.0K@ 44¢·Luzzzer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$46
6h
−$19.7K
tracked
$19.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Andrey Rublev and Roman Safiullin in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Roman Safiullin. This market will resolve to 'Roman Safiullin' if Roman Safiullin advances against Andrey Rublev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Andrey Rublev; negative values favor Roman Safiullin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAndrey Rublev · $46
6hRoman Safiullin · $19.7K
24hRoman Safiullin · $19.7K

Andrey Rublev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Andrey Rublev price. Roman Safiullin fills are converted to the complementary Andrey Rublev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.5¢
VWAP 24h55.7¢▲ above by 1.8pp
VWAP 7d55.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Andrey Rublev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$13.4K
50¢
$6.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRoman Safiullin$10.0K@ 43.8¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LuzzzerRoman Safiullin$19.4K
BUY VWAP 44.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.