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China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff

Sports→TennisSettlement: Daniil MedvedevLiquidity: $225.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $188.6KEvent: China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff
100.0¢
Daniil Medvedev payout
0.0¢
Jan-Lennard Struff payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$29.0K@ 86¢·jaytee158

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Daniil Medvedev. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-10 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Jan-Lennard Struff in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Jan-Lennard Struff. This market will resolve to 'Jan-Lennard Struff' if Jan-Lennard Struff advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 17d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Jan-Lennard Struff. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $28.8K
6hDaniil Medvedev · $65.8K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $71.2K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Jan-Lennard Struff fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h92.0¢▲ above by 8.1pp
VWAP 7d92.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$35.5K
90¢
$2.9K
85¢
$38.2K
80¢
$1
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDaniil Medvedev$10.1K@ 98.4¢0x09be…9c32🐋—17 days ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$29.0K@ 86.0¢
jaytee1580xa2c9…2c23
🐋—17 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.