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Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $22.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $172.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs
62.5¢
fnatic
37.5¢
Alliance
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection40Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution70Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:19 trades$67.1K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alliance · $28.2K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$28.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlliance$25.0K@ 45¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Alliance SETUP
What the tape says

Alliance pressure: $26.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$26.8K
6h
+$3.6K
tracked
$67.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: Alliance · $28.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 65

Since latest large flow: -7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alliance or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win the match against Alliance.

•This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win the match against fnatic.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between fnatic and Alliance in the Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win the match against Alliance. This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win the match against fnatic. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 17, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 3, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alliance@ 45.0¢52m ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp
Latest book event: Alliance UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $2.9K → $2.6K · 23s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor fnatic; negative values favor Alliance. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlliance · $26.8K
6hfnatic · $3.6K
24hfnatic · $3.6K

fnatic price VWAP

Volume-weighted fnatic price. Alliance fills are converted to the complementary fnatic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.5¢
VWAP 24h54.9¢▲ above by 7.6pp
VWAP 7d54.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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fnatic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$40
60¢
← now
$630
55¢
$50.6K
50¢
$15.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlliance$25.0K@ 45.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYfnatic$11.2K@ 56.0¢
TrippleEX0x994e…6136
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaAlliance$28.2K
BUY VWAP 45.3¢·3 fills
sbsignerfnatic$13.2K
BUY VWAP 54.3¢·2 fills
TrippleEXfnatic$11.2K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.