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China Open: Donna Vekic vs Iga Swiatek

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $412.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: China Open: Donna Vekic vs Iga Swiatek
0.1¢
Donna Vekic
100.0¢
Iga Swiatek
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets11Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 21 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:427 trades$448.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Iga Swiatek · $16.9K net·21 wallets(1🐋)·$156.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLIga Swiatek$55.7K@ 100¢·Kkunn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Donna Vekic pressure: $9.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$9.1K
6h
+$5.5K
tracked
$448.8K

21 verified profitable wallets: Iga Swiatek · $16.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: -72.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Donna Vekic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Donna Vekic and Iga Swiatek in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Donna Vekic' if Donna Vekic advances against Iga Swiatek. This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' if Iga Swiatek advances against Donna Vekic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Donna Vekic1h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Donna Vekic@ 73.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -36.0pp1h INVALIDATED -64.0pp
Latest book event: Iga Swiatek UP 7.5pp · near-book depth $164 → $79.5K · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Donna Vekic; negative values favor Iga Swiatek. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDonna Vekic · $9.1K
6hDonna Vekic · $5.5K
24hIga Swiatek · $5.5K

Donna Vekic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Donna Vekic price. Iga Swiatek fills are converted to the complementary Donna Vekic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h40.3¢▼ below by 40.3pp
VWAP 7d40.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Donna Vekic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$9.5K
90¢
$31.1K
85¢
$7.1K
80¢
$10.9K
75¢
$23.3K
70¢
$11.6K
65¢
$7.4K
60¢
$12.0K
55¢
$55.0K
50¢
$9.9K
45¢
$20.1K
40¢
$44.8K
35¢
$297
30¢
$8.1K
25¢
$15.7K
20¢
$22.2K
15¢
$28.5K
10¢
$29.0K
5¢
$10.5K
0¢
← now
$91.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLIga Swiatek$55.7K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYIga Swiatek$13.3K@ 99.9¢
dmoralez0x492b…45ee
🐋—6 minutes ago
BUYIga Swiatek$13.4K@ 41.3¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYIga Swiatek$12.3K@ 41.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDonna Vekic$12.6K@ 41.5¢
HectorHuang0x568a…04d9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HomeRunHazardDonna Vekic$44.3K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·11 fills
HomeRunHazardIga Swiatek$26.9K
BUY VWAP 40.4¢·9 fills
UpTheBluesIga Swiatek$19.6K
BUY VWAP 59.7¢·16 fills
KkunnIga Swiatek$16.8K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·2 fills
dmoralezIga Swiatek$15.4K
BUY VWAP 98.1¢·5 fills
0x076d…8d4cIga Swiatek$13.8K
BUY VWAP 52.2¢·2 fills
kkookkooIga Swiatek$13.4K
BUY VWAP 41.3¢·1 fill
manvsrice42Iga Swiatek$12.9K
BUY VWAP 86.6¢·3 fills
HectorHuangDonna Vekic$12.6K
BUY VWAP 41.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.