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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $43.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta
0.1¢
Mariano Navone
100.0¢
Pablo Carreno Busta
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets68Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:332 trades$594.0K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Pablo Carreno Busta · $111.6K net·16 wallets(1🐋)·$167.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPablo Carreno Busta$56.3K@ 46¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Mariano Navone pressure: $86.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$86.4K
6h
+$89.1K
tracked
$594.0K

16 verified profitable wallets: Pablo Carreno Busta · $111.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +47.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 47.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Mariano Navone or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mariano Navone and Pablo Carreno Busta in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Mariano Navone. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Pablo Carreno Busta13m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Pablo Carreno Busta@ 53.0¢27m ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Mariano Navone@ 53.0¢30m ago
15m INVALIDATED -30.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Mariano Navone@ 53.0¢31m ago
15m INVALIDATED -30.0pp
Latest book event: Pablo Carreno Busta UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $163 → $1.9K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mariano Navone; negative values favor Pablo Carreno Busta. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMariano Navone · $86.4K
6hMariano Navone · $89.1K
24hMariano Navone · $82.5K

Mariano Navone price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mariano Navone price. Pablo Carreno Busta fills are converted to the complementary Mariano Navone probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h53.8¢▼ below by 53.8pp
VWAP 7d53.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Mariano Navone price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$10
75¢
$45.4K
70¢
$39.8K
65¢
$28.9K
60¢
$21.4K
55¢
$99.9K
50¢
$224.0K
45¢
$58.5K
40¢
$31.5K
35¢
$6.9K
30¢
$9.2K
25¢
$2
20¢
$1.2K
15¢
$684
10¢
$12.1K
5¢
$4.7K
0¢
← now
$11.1K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMariano Navone$12.5K@ 61.5¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYMariano Navone$13.3K@ 59.1¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYMariano Navone$10.2K@ 51.9¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYPablo Carreno Busta$56.3K@ 46.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYMariano Navone$39.7K@ 50.9¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYMariano Navone$11.4K@ 49.1¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYMariano Navone$17.3K@ 58.7¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYMariano Navone$15.7K@ 58.5¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYMariano Navone$19.9K@ 57.4¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYMariano Navone$15.0K@ 49.4¢0x760f…326a🐋—35 minutes ago
BUYMariano Navone$14.1K@ 76.0¢
Scotty81530x00a5…f151
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLMariano Navone$10.5K@ 77.0¢
Illiasca0xc0a5…1f5f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLMariano Navone$20.3K@ 73.3¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kdvlklkvlsklkfsMariano Navone$189.4K
BUY VWAP 54.3¢·15 fills
ferrariChampions2026Pablo Carreno Busta$64.1K
BUY VWAP 45.6¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesPablo Carreno Busta$17.9K
BUY VWAP 48.6¢·6 fills
0x760f…326aMariano Navone$15.0K
BUY VWAP 49.4¢·1 fill
LuzzzerMariano Navone$14.5K
BUY VWAP 40.8¢·2 fills
Scotty8153Mariano Navone$14.1K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill
FlaznorpPablo Carreno Busta$13.6K
BUY VWAP 41.8¢·13 fills
Scotty8153Pablo Carreno Busta$13.2K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cPablo Carreno Busta$12.5K
BUY VWAP 49.9¢·4 fills
IlliascaMariano Navone$10.0K
BUY VWAP 38.2¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.